Assad krijgt het almaar moeilijker

Twee weken terug schreef ik een artikel waarin het Iraanse “plan B” ter sprake kwam. Dat houdt in dat Assad zich terugtrekt in het Alewitische hartland.

In dit artikel wordt dat weersproken:

American “experts” talk glibly now of how the Syrian army will make a “planned retreat” to the mountains of the Alawites, the Shia sect of President Assad, and try to keep open the road from Damascus to the Mediterranean coast via Homs.

Syrian “experts” – a lot closer to the battle than the think-tank boyos in Washington – speak of a more political strategy. What the regime must do, they say, is hold on to the major cities in a line from Aleppo south through Hama and Homs to Damascus

Volgens Syrische experts is het van belang Nusra en ISIS geen ‘hoofdstad’ te gunnen. Dat Raqqa is tenslotte een “fag-end of a city in the desert”.

Dr Faisal Mekdad, een staatssecretaris van het Syrische ministerie van buitenlandse zaken, klinkt overtuigd als hij ontkent wanneer hem gevraagd wordt of het waar is wat Amerikaanse experts zeggen dat er een geplande terugtrekking is richting de kust met de bedoeling vast te houden aan een Syrische rompstaat:

“Of course, losing any small village is a big loss for us. Every square inch of Syria is important to us. But Aleppo is the second major city of Syria and losing it would be a big loss. But we have never – ever – in our [cabinet] meetings doubted that we will hold it. All our strategic planning now is to keep the way open to Aleppo, to allow our forces to defend it.”

Dat mag die dan menen, feit is wel dat ze Idlib pas verloren hebben en “rebellen” blijkbaar naar believen de snelweg Aleppo Damascus over kunnen wandelen. Ook de rest van zijn verhaal is niet optimistisch.

01En waar ik nog een vraagteken had staan of Turkije voor de luchtmacht van al-Qaeda ging spelen:

01daar weet Dr Faisal Mekdad het zeker:

The occupation of Idlib [city] would never have taken place without direct Turkish intervention – thousands of Turks, Chechens, huge forces were brought in, which attacked Idlib and Jisr al-Shugour.

Het Syrische leger begint uitgeput en versleten te raken. Van 300.000 man naar 150.000 en de wapens beginnen op te raken.

“It is clear now that without re-energising the army, reorganising it and enabling its central command to implement all its decisions, then we will not be able to achieve what we are planning to achieve.”  Dr Mekdad spoke of new weapons for the army – it sorely needs them to replace the clapped-out Warsaw Pact tanks that litter Syria, however much the minister’s promise was born of hope rather than signed contracts.

alleen al in Mosul maakte ISIS 2300 Humvees buit.

alleen al in Mosul maakte ISIS 2300 Humvees buit.

Terwijl ISIS en al-Qaeda over onuitputtelijke voorraden lijken te beschikken. Humvees en training krijgen ze van de Amerikanen.


Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra are now attacking the Syrian military in rows of suicide trucks,

along fronts so wide that the army often doesn’t have the manpower to withstand them.

Rebel logistics are hi-tech and better than the Syrian army’s, and a lot of their communications systems are American.

The insurgents have hundreds of anti-armour wire-guided TOW and Milan anti-tank missiles and can afford to fire three – even four – rockets at a single Syrian tank,

piles of “tactical vests” – advanced body armour – thermal missiles,

enough sidearm ordnance for each rebel to carry 10,000 rounds of ammunition each,

En misschien wel het allergevaarlijkste ; Russische korans en Snickers.

stacks of Muslim prayer books in Russian (apparently belonging to Chechen fighters),

and stacks of Snickers chocolate bars.


Pickup trucks loaded with fertilizer and ammonium nitrate, which is widely used in agriculture but also for building explosives, head to Tel Abyad. (Photo: Cihan)

Ondertussen levert Turkije ook springstoffen aan ISIS zie foto hierboven en elektriciteit:

In the latest of a series of revelations, the Turkish authorities have allegedly been providing electricity to Tel Abyad — a northern Syrian city just across the border from the Turkish city of Akçakale — which is controlled by militants linked to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

More stunning is the not-so-secret presence of ISIL militants on the streets of Akçakale, in the southeastern province of Şanlıurfa, a reporter with the Birgün daily claimed in a piece published on Friday. His account echoes many other reports, revealing the risks Turkey is facing as fighting between Kurdish forces and ISIL militants in and around Tel Abyad continues to rage on.

While locals in Akçakale sometimes face several cuts during the day, Tel Abyad residents do not endure such problems as DEDAŞ continues to provide electricity to the Syrian town uninterruptedly. The power cuts disrupt irrigation in the rural areas of Akçakale, leading to troubles in the agricultural sector. Turks are paying the price of the electricity provided to ISIL. DEDAŞ, in a written statement on Friday after the piece was published, denied claims of supplying electricity to Tel Abyad.

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